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Strange, isn't it? Sun Microsystems
trades at 26 times cash flow. Yahoo! Inc. trades at 780 times cash
flow. Yet 60% of all public companies trade at less that six times
cash flow. Why is that?
Any study of the Russell 2000 quickly uncovers
the answer. If you company is a "not com," as opposed to a "dot
com," with a market capitalization of $250 million or less, the
odds are excellent that there are one or fewer analysts covering
the stock. In fact according to Bruce Krogstad, the Managing Director
of Issuer Services for NASDAQ, "Fully half of the NASDAQ listed
companies have zero analyst coverage."
As the stock market continues to grow, analysts
as well as investors and market makers have moved upstream to larger
companies. NO analyst coverage means virtually no investor knows
about the business. As a result, try as the company will, it tends
to staying the "less than six times cash flow" trading rut.
Dot coms are not immune either. In 1999, there
were 447 e-commerce companies that filed to go public. Picture this
... how many of those will be successful public firms in 18 months?
Will there be 50 that survive independently? Probably not.
The reality is that in order to re-create stockholder
value, a fundamental recapitalization of the company must take place.
Equity must move away from an under-whelmed public and in the hands
of those who will better appreciate it, namely a larger company
that will acquire this firm or management
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backed by private equity group who will take he company private.
Companies usually go public in order to raise capital by selling stock,
and then have the stock as a medium of exchange to attract and hold
employees, as well as for use in mergers and acquisitions. However, if
you company is one of the too-common "fallen angels," and the value of
your stock is depressed (60% of all public companies trade at less than
six times cash flow), employees with worthless options leave, new hires
are hard to find, money doesn't get raised, and acquisitions cant be
effectively financed.
Last year, 165 US-based public companies went
private. So did 45 in the UK and 22 in Continental Europe. There is
every evidence to support that trend dramatically increasing this year.
Going private is usually a win-win-win situation. Given the
going-nowhere circumstance of the majority of the public stock market,
the public sellers win because they normally get bought out at a
premium. The new investors win because they get good value for their
investment. The management and employees also win because they obtain
new capital, less public spotlight pressure and a new lease on
commercial life.
So, what is the single most important step for a
public company in order to go private? Well, that's a great topic for
the next article.
Fred Jager is CEO of Hunter Wise Financial Group, LLC. Investment Bankers, Newport Beach. www.hunterwise.com
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